Climate refugees are people who must leave their homes and communities because of the effects of climate change and global warming. Climate refugees belong to a larger group of immigrants known as environmental refugees.
Factors like sea level rise for coastal communities and small island states and drought for inland communities, can increase the likelihood of inhabitants needing to evacuate and become refugees elsewhere.
However, it is important to note that popular narratives of the Global South moving en masse to the Global North because of climate change has been debunked:
The truth is that the majority of people forced to flee their homes due to climate-related disasters typically move somewhere within their own home country. This is called internal displacement. In 2022 alone, 32.6 million people around the world were internally displaced due to climate-related disasters like floods, storms, wildfires and droughts.
While there is less data available pertaining to cross-border migration following disasters, we know that 70 percent of all refugees in the world live in countries neighbouring their own. People generally prefer to remain as close as possible to home and family, whether fleeing conflict or disaster. And those forced to move due to climate hazards are unlikely to have the means to move long distances to larger countries far away.
No Protection Under International Law?
While the term “climate refugees”is increasing in popularity and recognition in the media and across the United Nations system, it is not a term officially recognized by international law. This means that they face greater political risks than refugees who flee their homes due to conflict or political oppression. The 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention offers protection only to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution who have crossed an international border to find safety. Since most climate refugees are internally displaced persons, they therefore have no recourse in international law. Thus unlike traditional refugees, climate refugees may be sent back to their devastated homeland or forced into a refugee camp with no real means of legal settlement elsewhere.
There is of course, a correlation or connection, between climate impacts and violent conflict.
For example, in northern Cameroon in 2021, hundreds of people were killed and tens of thousands fled to neighbouring Chad following violence between herders and fishermen that was sparked by dwindling water resources linked to climate change. In cases like these, the 1951 Convention can be invoked, when an individual’s risk of facing persecution or violence is increased by climate change, which we may see increase in coming years.
Refugee laws at the regional level may also provide protection: The Organization of African Unity Convention, as well as the Latin American & Caribbean Cartagena Declaration both include those seeking refuge due to events that “seriously disturb public order,” which can certainly include climate-related events. The Cartagena Declaration in particular broadened the definition of ‘refugee’ for it to include people impacted by generalized violence, foreign aggression, internal conflicts, massive human rights violations, and other circumstances that seriously disturb public order.
As a result, States have been able to protect a higher number of displaced people in the region, a gesture that upholds a tradition of solidarity in Latin America and the Caribbean. The importance of the Cartagena Declaration lies in its humanitarian approach and the fact that it has adapted to a regional reality, where many displacement situations are not due to persecution alone.
A growing issue
As our global average temperatures rise, so too do the incidences of climate migration, whether internal or external, due to climate hazards. With more frequent and extreme weather events, comes more displacement by floods, hurricanes, sea level rise and drought. The nearly 33 million displacements caused by climate and environmental disasters in 2022 represent a 41 percent increase compared to 2008 levels.
Adding to this is the fact that climate change is a threat multiplier: it magnifies and exacerbates the impacts of other factors that can contribute to displacement, like poverty, loss of livelihood, tensions relating to dwindling resources–ultimately creating conditions that can lead to conflict and displacement.
While we know that human displacement is on the rise, the complex interconnections between climate and other factors like political conflict make it difficult to discern how many displacements can be attributed to climate change alone. So then predicting how many people will be displaced in the future is even more difficult. Much of it will depend on the measures we do or don’t take now to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Climate Migration in the Caribbean
More and more Latin American and Caribbean people migrate due to natural disasters, environmental degradation and the adverse impacts of climate change. In 2021 alone, more than 1.6 million new disaster displacements were recorded in the Americas. By 2050, the most pessimistic scenarios estimate that the region will have 17 million climate migrants.
For many people in the Caribbean, the search for a better life has quite often begun within the region. This has become evident through the fact that the absolute number of foreign-born nationals originating in the Caribbean present in another country in the subregion has steadily increased over the last two decades, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
According to the data available, on average, about 3% of the Caribbean population can be considered migrants. This, however, varies considerably from country to country, with the lowest percentage found in Jamaica, Guyana, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and the highest proportions reported for the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Anguilla, the Netherlands Antilles, Aruba and the United States Virgin Islands. The majority of migrants originate in just a few countries, mainly in the smaller member States of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), with the exception of Anguilla, but also Jamaica, Guyana, Suriname and Haiti. Deteriorating economic and social conditions, high unemployment particularly for younger people and little hope for improvements in the foreseeable future constitute the main push factors for those desperate to leave.
It is in this context that we are increasingly facing the reality of climate migration within the Caribbean and the broader Latin American and Caribbean region.
As Small Island Developing States, Caribbean countries are amongst the most vulnerable worldwide to the impact of a wide range of sudden onset hazards, notably hurricanes and storms, flooding and earthquakes. These hazards often overwhelm capacities of exposed countries and provoke massive disasters with large instances of displacement, as has been the case in recent years in countries such as Haiti, the Bahamas, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica.
In addition, slow-developing environmental degradation, made worse by the growing effects of climate change, is also gradually compounding the impacts of sea level rise and other factors, affecting both lives and livelihoods. Disaster preparedness and resilience building are therefore top priorities for governments in the region, and the International Organization for Migration has recently set up office and staff in Barbados, to support these efforts.
Some of the actions (according to the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) that Latin American and Caribbean countries can take to address the relationship between migration and climate change include:
- strengthening adaptation measures, such as building resilient infrastructure;
- improving the management of natural resources, and
- promotion of sustainable agricultural practices.
Countries can also develop migration policies that guarantee access to basic rights and services, such as education, health, and protection against violence and discrimination.
Furthermore, international cooperation is key to developing win-win migration solutions, including coordination of migration policies, assistance to countries of origin and support for migrants.
Author: Alicia Richins
Sustainable Impact Strategist | SDG Champion | Climate Justice Advocate | Climate Futures Writer
